Is this the end of the strong hand?

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Editor, news2biz LATVIA

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When talking and writing about the 2 October Latvian general elections, there is one epithet that springs up with amazing consistency: historic. The elections have been described as a turning point, most important elections in 15 years, Latvia at crossroads and a number of other comparisons that are intended to invoke their historic significance. As clichéd as the metaphors may be, they do hold a significant grain of truth. The elections indeed could change a lot – and their results suggest a profound change in the Latvian society. So what makes them so special?

We love the leader

When former Latvian Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis, well-known for his "let's party" mentality during the economic boom years and statements that Latvia is facing "seven fat years", announced his decision to withdraw from the Latvian politics, he blamed the current crisis on the lack of "strong personalities and strong leaders" in the Latvian political milieu.

In fact, much like with other Mr Kalvitis' statements, the truth is the exact opposite. Up to now, the abundance of colourful personalities and wannabe leaders with varying degree of success has probably been the most pronounced feature of the Latvian politics.

For one, we have had Mr Kalvitis himself, who did not shy from proclaiming himself "the pillar of stability of Latvia." Moreover, Mr Kalvitis' party – the ironically-named Tautas Partija (People's Party) – has been a steady supplier of strong personalities. Who could forget the former Latvian minister of economy, Atis "Nothing Special" Slakteris (his nickname comes from his famously out-of-touch description of the Latvian economic woes in a Bloomberg interview)? Or, indeed, the founding father of the party Andris Skele, who cultivated his "strong hand" image throughout his political career? Or his new best buddy and running mate, the infamous Ainars Slesers, who is so awash with his own ego that he seems to be incapable to talk about anything else but Ainars Slesers?

And the steady supply of flashy leaders has not been limited to TP. Vienotiba, the union of political parties that has produced the current PM Valdis Dombrovskis and won the elections, also endowed Latvia with such powerful personalities as Minister of Finance Einars Repse, whose trademark arrogance and eccentric style have earned him the nickname "the Martian", or Girts Valdis Kristovskis – or, as his ad campaign put it, Krrrrrristovskis! – whose main concern has been cultivating his tough guy image rather than, say, showing up for meetings of Riga City Council, of which he is a member.

Blessed are the meek

Compared to this pantheon of larger-than-life egos and verifiable demigods, the current PM Valdis Dombrovskis looks like a shy schoolboy. Soft-spoken, not particularly good-looking and almost unshakeably calm, Mr Dombrovskis looks like anything but a leader material. He does not ooze charisma, he rarely smiles and even his popular nickname is not "Bulldozer" or "Rocket", but merely "Teddy Bear."

Yet Mr Dombrovskis possesses numerous other qualities that make him stand out in the Latvian politics. He has not been involved in any shady deals or corruption scandals and, indeed, is widely seen as incorruptible. He actually knows what he is talking about and can answer his questions without weaselling out (see, for example, news2biz's interview with him in news2biz LATVIA no 301 page 13). And, what has probably been his biggest asset in the current situation, he is not swayed by the popular opinion or accusations and can actually stick to what he believes is the best.

In fact, Mr Dombrovskis' personality is so tame that his political opponents have had a hard time coming up with suitable insults. Unlike, say, Mr Repse, he cannot be called an off-beat lunatic with no sense of reality. Unlike Mr Kristovskis, he cannot be accused of hiding his own insecurities behind a macho image. Even his appearance does not lend itself too well to caricatures. Just about the only insult that has been pinned on Mr Dombrovskis is "the accountant", which, admittedly, does not exactly convey a sparkling personality.

Revenge of the nerds

And yet it is "the accountant" and "Teddy Bear" who has managed to win the elections, beating Bulldozers, Strong Hands and Pillars of Stability alike. In fact, he has received an almost unprecedented support from the Latvian voters: out of almost 264,500 voters in his region, more than 77,000 voters have specifically marked him as a preferred candidate. In Mr Dombrovskis' region, 110,194 votes were cast for Vienotiba, making it perfectly clear that he was the main selling point of the whole party.

So what to make of it? Has Vienotiba actually succeeded in moulding Mr Dombrovskis into a flashy vote magnet? Hardly: Mr Dombrovskis still refrains from loud statements and never raises his voice and still comes across much more as an accountant than a bulldozer.

But there is another, much more encouraging possibility. It just might be possible that slowly, but surely the Latvian voters have started to evaluate their politicians by more than just their haircut. It might be possible that the attempts to explain and communicate the government policies, even they still leave much to be desired, have actually succeeded to at least some degree, and an increasing number of Latvian voters know what policies are they voting for – and why.

A new hope?

In other words, this election very strongly suggests that the civil society in Latvia – much talked about but rarely seen – has finally come to age, and its role will only increase from now on.
Indeed, a number of other developments reinforce this image even stronger.
For one, Mr Skele and Mr Slesers have failed with their approach that has worked so well before: do whatever you like before the elections and then just advertise yourself in power. Together, they have obtained just above 7.5% of all votes, which is a measly amount considering their excessive advertising.

Another thing is that whistleblower websites leaking various secret documents that show corruption and money-laundering among Latvian politicians and books that investigate the matters further have been springing up like mushrooms – and the books consistently make best-seller lists.

Of course, a sceptical inquiry would easily find lots of evidence to the contrary, showing that the old ways are still very much entrenched in the Latvian society. That is understandable: what amounts to a massive change of thinking cannot happen overnight, and the likes of Mr Slesers will always have their supporters who will argue: "Sure, he may steal, but he shares what he has stolen."
That much is obvious. But there is another obvious thing: an ever-increasing number of Latvians have taken the responsibility for their country in their own hands, and they are ready to devote time, energy and effort to make sure their country gets on the right track and stays there.

And it is well about time they did.